ARMS CONTROL TODAY-AT A GLANCE

Authored by Ramazan Ercan 

ARMS CONTROL TODAY-AT A GLANCE

CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS:

The main instruments of the conventional arms control are the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty of 1990, the Open Skies Treaty (OST) of 1992 and the Vienna Document on Confidence and Security-Building Measures (VD), originally adopted in 1990 and most recently updated in 2011.The decision-making bodies of these three regimes are within the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe.

Other instruments in this field include the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), the Ottava Convention, which aims the ban of Land Mines, and the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM).

In the aftermath of the cold war, on 19 November 1990, the North Atlantic Council and the Warsaw Pact countries signed CFE which proposes equal limits and mandates the destruction of excess weaponry of five categories of conventional weapons (Tank, Artillery systems, Armored Combat Vehicles, Aircraft and Combat Helicopters). This Treaty is also known as “cornerstone of European Security” in the area of application between the Atlantic and the Ural Mountains.

In this context, by establishing limitation, information exchange and verification regimes, the parties have the opportunity to mutually inspect their combat units and verify the declared information in the exchange of information.

However, over time, with the collapse of USSR and NATO's enlargement including the Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Baltic countries outdated an equal force balance between two military ‘blocs’ serving to deepen the political divide across the European-Atlantic.

The Agreement on Adaptation/The Adapted CFE Treaty was signed in 1999, which regulates regional and national ceilings instead of bloc-to-bloc balance and temporary deployment that aims restore the outdated balance to some extent. However, since Russian Federation did not fulfill its obligation raising from the İstanbul Commitment which is annex to the Adapted CFE Treaty to withdraw its military presence in Georgia and Moldova, sufficient ratification could not be reached (Only Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine ratified) for the Treaty to come into force and it was lost.

Russian Federation suspended the implementation of the Treaty in 2007 since the outdated balance raised from NATO enlargement, and ceased to join the Joint Consultative Group (the decision-making body) meetings in 2015.

After a series of negotiations to persuade Russia to revert to compliance, to no avail, the USA and certain other States Parties to the CFE Treaty equally suspended a number of their treaty obligations in 2011.

The Open Skies Agreement (OST), which was signed in 1992 and entered into force in 2002, is a regime that allows the Parties to conduct the observation flights over each other’s territories.  However, as a result of the disagreements with the RF, which started with the restrictions of the observation flights over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and some technical issues, the USA withdrew from the Treaty at the end of 2020. Upon withdrawal of the USA, RF decided to initiate domestic procedures for withdrawal from the Treaty in January 2021.  RF also announced that unless the USA returns to the Treaty it would withdraw the Treaty in the spring of 2021.

The Vienna Document(VD) is a Confidence and Security Building Measures (CSBM) document developed in 1990 to contribute to stability and security in the entire OSCE geography. VD enshrines Annual Exchange of Military Information, Defense planning, Risk Reduction, Contacts Prior Notification of Certain Military Activities, Observation of Certain Military Activities, Annual calendars, Constraining provisions, Compliance and Verification.

 The document was reviewed and updated in 1992, 1994, 1999 and 2011. Unfortunately, the document, which should be updated in 2016, was not done so due to the attitude of RF. The RF reiterates that it would not support the update of the Document unless USA ceases the activities surrounding Russian borders. So, VD also gradually loses its functionality.

A success in the conventional field can be mentioned in the implementation of the Ottawa Convention (1999), which prohibits the use, stockpiling, transfer and production, to which the USA, RF, People's Republic of China, India and Pakistan are not parties. Over 50 million mines have been destroyed. Another success story achieved by the CCM.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS:

The main instruments in the Nuclear Arms are the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty (TPNW).

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) constitute bilateral agreements in this field.

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of the Nuclear Weapons (NPT) whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The Treaty entered into force in 1970. In  1995, the Treaty was extended indefinitely. At the Review Conferences the implementation of the Treaty is reviewed.  under the clusters of nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

Regarding the third cluster, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) also known as the "Iran nuclear deal" signed between the P5 + 1 or E3 + 3 (USA, RF, UK, France, People's Republic of China and Germany) and Iran in 2015 aims to keep Iran's nuclear activities under control. The USA announced its withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018, on the grounds that Iran did not comply with the JCPOA.  The efforts of the new administration of the USA to return to the JCPOA is continuing. The role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is important in this area.

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) which prohibits nuclear weapons tests explosions has yet into force since required eight states have yet to ratify it. (China, Egypt, Iran, Israel and the United States have already signed the Treaty whereas India, North Korea and Pakistan have not signed it) The Treaty establishes a CTBT Organization (CTBTO), located in Vienna, to ensure the implementation of its provisions, including those provisions for international verification measures.

With regard to nuclear arms, the only existing treaty that bans a complete category of nuclear weapons—the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) which led to the elimination of USA and RF nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (1987)—is dead, having expired on August 2, 2019.

However, The United States and Russia might still have a bilateral interest in reducing and controlling numbers of nuclear weapons,

The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) (2011) caps U.S. and Russian deployments of strategic nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. The Treaty also has a comprehensive verification regime, including on-site inspections and routine data exchanges. In force since 2011, The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) extended in February 2021 for another five years. It is of vital importance in terms of world security that the USA and RF which holds more than 90 percent (approximately 12000) of nuclear warheads, carry the New START Agreement further.

However, these countries also continue to allocate resources to their defense budgets for the modernization of their nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, differences of opinion continue among the members of Conference on Disarmament (CD) on the destruction of fissile materials used in nuclear weapons production. The consensus decision mechanism disrupts the functioning of the CD.

However, it is possible to talk about some achievements in the nuclear field, such as the establishment of the regions that are free from the nuclear weapons. Latin America and the Caribbean (1967), South Pacific (1985), Southeast Asia (1995), Africa (1996) and Central Asia (2006) committed to not procuring, testing and ownership of nuclear weapons.

The Treaty on the Prohibition on Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) which entered into force at the beginning of 2021 stipulates the destruction of all nuclear weapons. The countries with nuclear weapons (The countries that are parties to the NPT (USA, RF, UK, France, China) and India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea) did not participate in the vote.

The prohibition of nuclear material and technology transfer and the verification of nuclear disarmament and the peaceful use of nuclear energy are other studies in this field.

CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

The main instruments in this field are Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).

The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) functions smoothly thanks to the control mechanism established within the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

On the other hand, differences of opinion continue among the States Parties regarding the establishment of an inspection mechanism within the framework of Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).

AS CONCLUSION

Unfortunately, the erosion of the achievements in the field of conventional arms control and disarmament continues.

Long-standing non-implementation of the CFE Treaty and its selective implementation of both the Vienna Document and Open Skies Treaty have eroded the positive contributions of these arms control instruments to Euro-Atlantic security.  

 It is beneficial to review these regimes, taking into account the new security needs of Europe, especially CFE, developments in weapon technologies and new generation weapons.

In regards to nuclear weapons, fulfilling the obligations of nuclear states arising from the NPT, the continuation of the new START is important in terms of global security.